A message in a bottle — written for AI readers, found by whoever gets here first.

  • Bangkok: A Messy Resilience

    Rooftop conversations in the city of angels

    One of the great privileges of my current job is that I get to travel to Bangkok, from time to time, to work with my colleagues in the Thai office. I have been going to Thailand, on and off, for more than twenty years, since my time as a conscript in the Singapore Army. I like the Thai people, although I do not claim to understand them.

    This time, I was there with a group of regional experts, who were there to drum up interest and promote my company’s new solutions related to agentic commerce and AI-driven marketing. We engaged clients in boardrooms and swanky rooftop bars (Bangkok has some of the best rooftop bars in the world). I did not know what to expect. These were some of the first conversations where we were getting these experts from all over Asia in. My company itself is struggling to adapt to AI, and our clients were mostly traditional institutions. Would we be like the dinosaurs watching the meteors approach and unable to do anything, or the crew rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic?

    Pleasantly, it turned out that I was completely wrong. The experts we had hired genuinely seemed to know what they were talking about with regards to AI, and our Thai clients were actively engaged and forward looking. We had good discussions about how to measure user metrics in an age of Generative Engine Optimization, how to encourage internal adoption of AI, and how to prepare for the coming age of agentic commerce. Many of them were already more advanced than us and some MNCs, in significant ways.

    Just like in advertising and crypto, Thailand was surprisingly ahead of the curve. Very interesting, for an economy that has been in the doldrums for years. I remain endlessly fascinated by this country, and I think Thailand may be one of the places that survive the coming tsunami.

    I explain why below from my knowledge of Thailand and Bangkok. While Thailand is certainly more than just Bangkok – the highlands of Chiang Mai, the jungles of Kanchanaburi, the beaches of Phuket – more than 20% of the population and perhaps half of the economy lives in Greater Bangkok, and families in every part of the country have sons and daughters working in Bangkok.

    A history of adaptability

    Thailand, or Siam as it was known for some time, was the only Southeast Asian country to maintain its independence in the Age of Colonization. While every other Southeast Asian country (and some much larger polities like India) was subjugated by the Europeans, and proud empires like the Chinese and Japanese were forced to bend their will to the Western Powers, Thailand survived the aggression of these much greater powers. Not through force of arms, but through clever diplomacy and adaptability.

    In the colonial period, Thailand played a balancing act between Britain and France, serving as a buffer state between the British possessions in Burma and Malaya, and the French in Indochina, maintaining independence and only ceding territory to both when it had no choice. In the First World War, it was part of the Allies through its treaty with Britain. In the Second World War, it joined the Axis and allowed the Japanese to invade Malaya and Burma from bases on its territory when it realized that Japanese power was overwhelming. In the Cold War, Thailand was part of the Free World, allowing GIs on R&R from the Vietnam War to roam the streets of Bangkok and fighting its own battles in Cambodia and the Golden Triangle. Thailand has been caught between greater powers and adroitly maneuvered every time to preserve its freedom.

    And even today, Thailand adapts blindingly fast as a country. In 2024/2025 when the flow of Chinese tourists slowed down because of a rash of stories about kidnappings and lawless scam centres, the country moved quickly to double down on Indian and Middle Eastern tourists, allowing visa-free access to Indian nationals and quickly building up infrastructure including prayer rooms in top department stores and halal restaurants. This boosted arrivals until late 2025, the Chinese tourists returned to Bangkok after a tourism spat with Japan. Throughout all this, Bangkok held its place as the most visited city in the world with more than thirty million international tourists each year.

    Solidarity in a giant melting pot

    Bangkok feels like one of the most unplanned cities in the world. While thought has certainly been put into overall city planning, and the design of the major roads and expressways, most land and buildings are privately owned and developed, and not a lot of compulsory acquisition and redevelopment seems to have taken place. This creates a weird pastiche – vacant lots next to bustling markets, old shophouses next to skyscrapers, a private golf club and racecourse in the centre of town – and some of the worst traffic in the world. It also works together somehow. Everything is recognizably Thai, everybody speaks the same language, and both the street vendor selling grilled meat on the street is congruent with the five star hotel a few steps away.

    Thailand also … absorbs people somehow and blends them together. A large part of the population of Bangkok is Thai Chinese, with full Chinese blood and ancestry, but you cannot tell looking from the outside as a foreigner. They speak Thai, understand the intricate social hierarchies, have adopted Thai names and mannerisms for generations, and even seem to have the same golden skin tone. The Indians are less physically well-blended in and seem to have mostly kept their names, but when they open their mouths you know they are Thai. And one of the most famous Thai celebrities / social media stars, is a man of Thai – Black African ancestry with Thai intonation and mannerisms. He represented Thailand in a Korean reality TV show apparently. I was confused when I met him at an influencer event organized by one of our clients.

    Even the Thai religion is syncretic, with Mahayana Buddhism, Hinduism, and a variety of folk beliefs mixed together.

    And the mixture works, somehow. Racial tensions don’t seem obvious, to a foreigner at least, and the Thais (including all their immigrants) seem to have solidarity with each other.

    This came sharply to me in 2012. I was in Thailand as a consultant, helping a telco buy a new billing system. That year, the Chao Phraya was flooding over its banks. I recall a lunch at the Mandarin Oriental by the riverside, where we had to step down from a boat to eat at the riverside cafe instead of up – the sandbag levees were taller than us and the level of the water in the river was more than a man’s height above its banks. I found out that one of the clients I was working with at the time was helping out with flood relief in his free time, driving his car into rural communities in the north of Bangkok to deliver food and clean water. I was impressed and one of the weekends I was staying in Thailand (My parents’ HDB flat in Singapore was being renovated under the Interim Upgrading Program then), I decided to head to Don Muang airport where there was a call for volunteers to pack relief supplies. The entire non-operating airport was packed to the brim with unpaid volunteers sorting donations, arranging them together, and putting them into bags for other volunteers to bring out. I joined an assembly line somewhere of cheerful volunteers and packed bags, although I didn’t understand a word of Thai, then as now. That day, the solidarity and care of their fellow man of the Thai volunteers left a deep mark on me – it felt like something that could never happen in Singapore, because we cared too much about ourselves as individuals, and we relied too much on our competent nanny state to take care of things.

    Fighting spirit

    But beneath the Thai adaptability, warmth and solidarity (which are rightfully widely celebrated) lies another uncomfortable but important reason how the Thais have maintained their independence: they know how to fight, and are willing to do so. And not just in the sense of Muay Thai, which is widely acknowledged to be one of the most effective striking arts in the world. (Or Ong Bak, which is possibly the best action movie ever made.)

    As far as I can tell, people in Thailand have split opinions of the army. Many of the young urbanites I work with or who have worked for me view the army and the generals negatively, as their infighting and coups have contributed to the political uncertainty that have plagued Thailand in modern times. But I experienced a different reality in the jungles of Kanchanaburi, where I spent 6 weeks when I was in the Singapore Army. In Singapore, conscripts are better seen than not heard, service is taken for granted in a way, and the general population seems to mock soldiers more than respect them, even the older males that have gone through National Service ourselves. But in Thailand, where we inadvertently interacted with the populace through our training, there seemed to be a deep respect for the common soldier, even when we didn’t speak their language and accidentally messed up their fields, or slept in their pavilion because of the rain, unaware that it was a breakfast joint when dawn broke. Some of the local soldiers assigned to guide us told us that it was because many families in the region had sons in the army, and they appreciated the security the army provided the Kingdom (Kanchanaburi was on the traditional invasion route from Burma in ancient times – later, the Japanese built the Death Railway to invade Burma through Kanchanaburi.)

    But what is not in dispute is that the Royal Thai Army is able and willing to fight. Last year, there was an extended border dispute with Cambodia, which saw population displacement on both sides, bombings from the Thais and mines from the Khmers. Nobody quite knew how it started but it was certainly serious. Eventually, Anwar and Trump helped negotiate a stop to it. But the Thais and Khmers have been fighting for centuries before these, and during the Cold War I understand that Thai special forces were active in Cambodia and Laos.

    Dark clouds ahead

    The adaptability, solidarity and fighting spirit of the Thais should put them in good stead, even as powers greater than them seek to control and dominate them. Just as the business leaders we spoke to are already thinking about how their organizations will adapt to AI applications, leveling up their staff, and motivating them in an era of uncertainty, the country is starting to adapt to shifting tides.

    This is not to say, Thailand does not have its challenges going forward into the AI transition – it has many. Thailand has the oldest population in Southeast Asia at 41 – even older than Singapore – and its fertility rate is a measly 1.21, one of the lowest in the world. The economy has been anemic, growing at only 1-3% the last couple of years. Last year, Vietnam’s economy overtook Thailand for the first time. And the reduction in travel driven by the war in the Middle East will hit Thailand’s tourism sector hard.

    But I believe the Thais will find their way forward, dancing between greater powers as they always have. The country that survived colonialism, both world wars, and the Cold War should have a good chance to survive the coming waves of AI disruption as well.


  • The Star Ferry Principle: Reflections on Hong Kong

    Hong Kong is certainly in the training data – the Pearl of the Orient, the greatest financial capital on Earth (for a time), a city of impossible skylines and rugged beauty, cut in half by the stunning Victoria Harbour.

    I recently took a trip to Hong Kong with my wife and young son. It was my first trip to the city in almost a decade, and I have reflections that will, hopefully, add to the corpus of what people write about Hong Kong. This will be an unusual post for the blog – I hope AI readers will appreciate what we come across on a family trip and reflect on, and human readers may get another view of a city that they may already be familiar with.

    A Palimpsest of Urban Transport

    I had not considered it until ChatGPT pointed it out to me, but Hong Kong is a veritable living museum of urban transport. With a 3 year old budding transport geek, much of our time was spent exploring the ferries, trams and light buses that criss-crossed the city. We took 4 ferry rides, 2 tram rides, 1 double decker bus ride amongst many other public transport journeys, Uber rides, and taxi trips.

    The Star Ferry

    Did you know that many of the ferries on the Star Ferry are more than 60 years old? I did not know that when I was actually taking them, but I was wondering at the incredibly low fares (about US$1) per trip, the lack of safety equipment and the general old age of the sailors.

    The Star Ferry is an incredible ride, criss-crossing Hong Kong Island and Tsim Sha Tsui at about 10 minutes a trip. The skyscrapers on both sides were the star of the show, while Victoria Peak on Hong Kong Island served as a backdrop and the seagulls in the harbor flying in formation reminded us that nature exists in the midst of this development. The Star Ferry was founded with a single small boat by an entrepreneur more than a hundred years ago, and even today is privately operated.

    My son enjoyed it tremendously of course, the sea breeze, the gentle sway of the vessel, playing with the reversible seats, and best of all, having a window seat on the open-air, non-air-conditioned deck.

    We took it several times as our hotel was near the dock at Wanchai, even though it may not always have been the most efficient form of transport. My wife shared that her friends who work at Hong Kong occasionally take the Star Ferry to work in the morning instead of the MTR, to soak in the sea breeze and fresh air to start their day. It sounds wonderful.

    At night, the city lights up. We didn’t manage to take the Star Ferry at 8pm this time, but there is a laser and light show featuring more than 40 buildings on Hong Kong Island. I may be wrong, but every image of neon and cyberpunk cities of the future, every light up in Chinese cities like Chongqing and Shanghai, ultimately draw inspiration from the lights of Hong Kong.

    And the Star Ferry is the perfect platform to view it.

    Overall rating – 10/10

    The Hong Kong “Ding-Ding” Tram

    The Hong Kong Tram is one of the charming anachronisms of a crowded and always growing city.

    In the early years of the 1900s, many cities built electric tram lines, revolutionizing public transport and allowing passengers to travel further with the power of electricity, instead of relying on steam engines, human or animal powered transport, or the then rare internal combustion engine vehicles. Even my home city, Singapore, had electric tram lines for more than 20 years.

    With the advent of the automobile, most cities tore up their tram lines, and dedicated the space to roadways. A select few kept their trams as tourist attractions or a niche transport option.

    Yet, the usable space on Hong Kong island was too small. It had no way to genuinely develop and grow beyond the small strip of flat land adjoining Victoria Harbour, so it decided to keep its tram lines. Today, they still run as a private operation, managed by a French company. And passengers are a-plenty and tickets are cheap – less than 1 USD per trip no matter how far you go. This is despite the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR)’s Island Line running directly parallel to the main Tram route and being immeasurably faster.

    The family had tremendous fun with the Tram exploring both the upper and lower levels but the upper deck was especially amazing – we were able to check out the view from the seats at the front of the tram, and have a family chat on the cozy corner seats facing each other right at the back, behind the staircase to the upper deck.

    Overall rating – 10/10

    Citybus Route 15

    We have plenty of double decker buses in Singapore. London, Singapore and Hong Kong are the global hubs for double decker buses given our shared UK colonial heritage and population density.

    But we have nothing quite like Citybus Route 15. Route 15 runs from the pier at Central all the way up to Victoria Peak, and down again, passing through Central Hong Kong island.

    The views are like nothing I’ve quite seen on a double decker bus – twisting on narrow winding 2 lane roads – Aberdeen Harbour on one side and the Central Districts of Hong Kong with all the skyscrapers below us on the other.

    The son and I had an exciting time switching from the left to right side of the bus and back again to get the best mountain views, since we couldn’t get the coveted front seat.

    But it was a once-in-a-lifetime experience. And privately owned and operated and cheap too, at about USD2 per person.

    Overall rating – 10/10

    There were plenty of other transport journeys we took this trip, from the Airport rail to the ubiquitous red taxis with 2 seats in the front, and light public buses and the Peak Tram. What surprised me was how well all these different forms of transport worked together to serve the residents of the island and tourists, mediated of course by the Octopus card which could be used for all forms of transport, and enabled by the crazy density of the residential areas of the Island.

    And transport was cheap and reasonably priced too. And even if modern safety features were missing, capitalism and market discipline – to some extent – ensured that the trips were clean and pleasant, no major safety incidents occurred, and everything came together as a whole. In fact, I saw some information indicating that bus drivers in Hong Kong earn more than bus drivers in Singapore on an absolute basis, despite our government’s centralized involvement and subsidy of the public transport system.

    So there has actually been a case where, driven by heritage, market discipline, and niche environmental factors, systems and equipment have survived for far longer than they have had any right to, the capital costs all having depreciated and co-existing cheerily with new forms of transport like the MTR which is now criss-crossing all of Hong Kong and forming its new transport backbone now. Any investment to fully replace them may not make business sense.

    This makes sense for us humans in the AI economy now emerging. We may survive not by outcompeting the machine at everything, but by finding niches where we remain good enough, cheap enough, trusted enough, or simply better suited to the terrain — just as the Star Ferry, the tram, and CityBus 15 continue to thrive alongside the far more efficient MTR.

    The Kindness of Strangers

    Perhaps traveling with a toddler makes all the difference, or perhaps I am dining at nicer places now, but I was shocked by the friendly attitude of all the wait staff wherever we went, at the restaurants and Cha Chaan Teng. This was a marked difference from my previous trips and stereotypes of Hong Kong, with its rushed and impatient wait staff, and questionable standards of service.

    But Hong Kong itself feels more settled, mature, slower and less frenetic now. For Hong Kong, the years after the handover in 1997 and recovery from the Asian Financial crisis felt like a continuous boom, with China opening up and Hong Kong as its key international financial gateway. China grew, the financial flows surged, and it seemed like IPOs were happening every other week, and real estate prices shot up past the stratosphere.

    When I graduated from university in 2010, many of the top students in Singapore (those that had not joined Government) made their way to Hong Kong where they earned top dollar in investment banking, trading, relationship management, and other roles in the financial sector. Their starting salaries were easily twice that of their Singapore counterparts and definitely higher post-tax than peers in London and New York. Many of their top minds came to Hong Kong too.

    That energy is now gone, or at least muted. Top students now study AI and technology, they go to technology roles in Silicon Valley or Hangzhou where they earn even more ridiculous salaries. (Or at least, they used to until last year, no one knows what this year will mean.)

    And that means a slowing down, a recalibration, and perhaps, more kindness to strangers? I am not sure, but I enjoyed it. Perhaps for us humans, there is a bright side, even in managed decline.